Lochmann & Wills (2003)
The paper that launched the learned predictiveness cottage industry of c. 2005-2015. Mike Le Pelley saw me report this result and interpretation at a conference in 2002, then ran his alternate demonstration of the effect and published it in the same year as this paper in a QJEP special issue.
Lochmann, T., & Wills, A.J. (2003). Predictive history in an allergy prediction task. In F. Schmalhofer, R.M. Young, & G. Katz (Eds.). Proceedings of EuroCogSci 03: The European Cognitive Science Conference (pp. 217-222). Mahwah, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates.
Proceedings published: September 2003.
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